Written by Ido Kalev.
The State of Israel’s eliminations policy during this war, which has been ongoing since the massacre of October 7, 2023, is the most important global innovation in the way of global warfare. The way of global warfare that has been developed and improved over the past thousands of years.
Since the deadly raid carried out by Hamas on October 7, 2023, it has been proven time and again to every security expert in the world that the main factor in victory in current and future wars, which are the wars of the 21st century, is a policy of eliminations of senior figures during the war. The elimination of the enemy’s political and military leadership. This is in addition to the conventional way of conducting traditional warfare, which includes destroying missiles, missile launchers, ammunition depots, tanks, anti-aircraft missile batteries, destroying vital sites, conquering enemy territory, and more.
Historical Background and the Shift in Doctrine
Even in past wars in the world, for thousands of years, leaders of the warring states and armies were sometimes killed. Usually, the leaders were killed by accident and were not killed as part of a specific plan, or as an opening attack that shocked the opponent. Sometimes, the leaders were killed during the battle, they were killed because they happened to be in the place where the arrows, bullets, bombs and missiles, etc. hit.
This is not the situation that exists in the recent wars of the IDF and the intelligence services of the State of Israel.
The State of Israel has made the elimination of the leaders of enemy countries and armies during war the most important war move, an opening blow, a fatal surprise that shocks the opponent and gives the attacker the opportunity to carry out moves that may end the fighting and subdue the enemy.
Required Capabilities for Successful Eliminations
To succeed in the elimination of senior commanders, a combination of highly specialized capabilities is required, capabilities that only a very limited number of militaries and intelligence services worldwide have developed to an advanced level.
- High-quality intelligence is required on those targeted for elimination. The intelligence on the exact location of the commanders and individuals targeted for elimination, a location that refers to a short, defined and given time.
- High-quality intelligence is required on the target intended for attack. Intelligence on the defense and fortifications of the place. Technical intelligence on the defense, such as the ability of the weapons to penetrate the place where the leaders are, the defense capability in terms of the required explosive force, and the most important aspect, the human factor.
- Advanced aircraft, missiles, and other weapons capable of reaching the target and hitting it precisely are required. The intention is not to hit the structure only. A hit at a precise location is required that will eliminate the target located in the area where the targets are located in the structure.
- A determined and prepared political and military leadership is required to pay the political and military price that is expected to be incurred in the event that the enemy leadership is eliminated.
- One example, the way in which Hamas leaders abroad and in the Gaza Strip were eliminated, including Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, and Muhammad Daf. The above-mentioned commanders still have no replacement. Dozens of senior Hamas and Jihad commanders at one level lower were also eliminated, and the organizations struggle to place equivalents.
Strategic Impact and Global Implications
The war of eliminating the leaders of terrorist organizations and/or countries that sponsor terrorism like Iran have proven and will prove their effectiveness. It is difficult for the world to accept this, but if any of the leaders of the Western world could say that they regretted the untimely death of Nasrallah or Yahya Sinwar, it would be surprising, but what did it do to the organizations they led? It broke their leadership and really scared them.
Those organizations changed procedures. They changed communication methods to the level of passing ballots. They swapped roles so that the State of Israel would not know who held which role, but despite all that is written above, Israel, with its unique intelligence capabilities, has proven time and again, including in the last 24 hours in the opening blow in Iran, that there is no enemy that cannot be reached, and these considerations will determine whether the move will be carried out or not.
One of the important considerations of the State of Israel is that they are innocent. Israel did not demand a targeted thwarting move if they were complicit in a crime or were not involved in the environment of the object.
The second consideration is the impact on the course of the fighting, because there is and will be no leader of a terrorist organization or state that Israel will not reach, and this is a fact that comes from technological capabilities combined with AI that cannot be specified, and the execution capabilities of a human factor, whether in the air, on the ground or at sea.
In present and future wars, in the main war goals and not just for Israel, in wars of other nations, in another region, in addition to the military personnel and important facilities, there will also be considerations of neutralizing the political leadership.
Rapid elimination of the political and military leaderships may shorten the war and may lead to a political agreement.
