Progress, Pitfalls, and the Reality of the 2027 Target
In 2022, Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine put the European Union’s energy dependency under its harshest spotlight. Overnight, the diplomatic bridges with the state controlling Europe’s gas valve were burned. Since then, the EU’s energy agenda has revolved around a single theme: breaking the dependency.
But let’s ask the real question: Is it really that simple? Or to reframe it — what does independence truly cost, and how achievable is it?
The Shift Away from Russian Gas: What Do the Numbers Say?
In 2021, the European Union relied on Russia for about 45% of its natural gas. By the end of 2023, this figure had fallen to around 19% (Reuters). That’s a notable decrease, but the situation on the ground is more complex.
Russia still supplies gas to Europe through several key channels:
- The TurkStream pipeline continues delivering gas to Southeast Europe.
- Some countries are still importing LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) from Russia.
- Eastern nations like Hungary and Slovakia remain heavily reliant on Russian gas for energy security.
The European Commission has pledged to eliminate dependency on Russian gas by 2027. But despite how strong this goal sounds on paper, there are political, technical, and economic hurdles in the way.
The Challenges of Achieving Full Independence
1. One-Way Infrastructure
For decades, pipelines from Russia delivered gas directly to European cities. Alternative systems are still not widespread. For example, Germany’s LNG terminals are still limited in capacity. Receiving LNG, regasifying it, and feeding it into national grids requires major engineering and logistics investments.
2. Energy Dependency = Political Constraints
There is no unified stance on energy within the EU. Hungary, for example, has maintained gas cooperation with Russia despite Western sanctions. Such policies hinder collective action across the union.
3. High Costs, Low Comfort
While LNG imports from the U.S. have increased, they come at a price. Russian pipeline gas was cheaper and more stable in pricing. New suppliers introduce higher costs and greater volatility — which directly hits European households through rising bills.
4. Green Energy Isn’t Ready Yet
While renewable energy investments are growing, Europe cannot replace gas overnight. Solar and wind energy still struggle to meet base load demands. In other words, gas remains a necessary “transition fuel” for the foreseeable future.
What Is Europe Doing? (And What Can It Do?)
To reduce its dependence on Russian gas, Europe is taking the following steps:
- Building new LNG terminals, especially in Germany, the Netherlands, and the Baltics.
- Increasing imports from Norway and Azerbaijan.
- Investing in hydrogen and biomethane as alternative energy sources.
- Launching energy-saving campaigns to cut internal consumption.
But none of these offer a short-term fix. The main question remains: How will Europe protect both energy security and economic stability during this transition?
Can a New Energy Map Be Drawn?
The short answer: Yes.
The long answer: Yes, but it will hurt.
This transition is like trying to change your home’s heating system in the middle of winter. Europe is diversifying its energy supply, but there’s no room for mistakes. Without proper storage, infrastructure, and political unity, the economic and social toll could be high.
Conclusion: “Independence” Is Achievable, But It Will Take Time
Europe has made significant progress in reducing its dependence on Russian gas. However, that does not yet amount to full independence. Gas still flows, contracts are still in place, and several countries remain tied to Russian supply.
Is the 2027 target achievable? Yes — but only with coordination, investment, and strong political will. Otherwise, the goal risks remaining just another policy statement.
Let’s Talk:
Do you think this transition is sustainable? How much longer can European citizens endure soaring energy prices?
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Sources:
- Reuters. (2025, May 14). Europe will struggle to wean itself off Russian gas. https://www.reuters.com
- Financial Times. (2025). EU’s legal battle over long-term gas contracts. https://www.ft.com
- E3G. (2025). Clean energy has already made the EU more secure. https://www.e3g.org
- Delano.lu. (2025). Why Russian gas will outlast the EU’s 2027 full exit plan. https://delano.lu
