In June 2025, the Middle East was once again reminded of the region’s fragile balance when Iran launched a series of missiles in retaliation to ongoing hostilities with Israel. Among them, a newly developed ballistic missile, known as Haj Qassem, took center stage. Its use—both technically and politically—marks an evolution in Iran’s strategic signaling. But beneath the surface of technical advancement lies a series of contradictions.
From Tactical Range to Strategic Messaging
Over the past two decades, Iran has steadily built a vast missile arsenal aimed at compensating for its limited air force and restricted access to international defense markets. The strategy is straightforward: use missile technology to deter regional adversaries, project power, and maintain an edge in asymmetric warfare.
What began with short-range ballistic missiles like the Fateh‑110 and Zolfaghar—systems capable of targeting military installations within a 500–700 km radius—has evolved into a broader doctrine that includes medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and even hypersonic technologies.
This shift is not just about range or payload. It’s about crafting a narrative of self-reliance and deterrence. The Haj Qassem missile, named after the slain IRGC general Qasem Soleimani, is a continuation of that narrative. But in trying to tell the world “we are not to be underestimated,” Iran risks investing in tools that may escalate tensions more than they stabilize them.
Technical Capabilities and the “Haj Qassem” Profile
According to international sources, the Haj Qassem missile boasts a range of 1 400 km, a solid-fuel engine, and a warhead exceeding 500 kg. Reports indicate that it achieves speeds in excess of Mach 8, possibly reaching hypersonic thresholds in its terminal phase. The missile is reportedly maneuverable, capable of bypassing systems like Israel’s Iron Dome and David’s Sling.
These features suggest a system designed not just for reach but for survivability in contested airspaces—a necessity given Iran’s awareness of the region’s dense missile defense coverage.
However, many of these performance claims remain difficult to verify. Open-source satellite imagery and intercepted telemetry are limited, and Iran’s state media is not known for transparency. What can be confirmed is that missiles like Haj Qassem have increased regional alert levels, but whether they genuinely redefine deterrence remains an open question.
Gaps in Precision and Overshadowed Infrastructure
Despite public claims of high precision and advanced navigation, Iran’s missile program still struggles with consistency in targeting accuracy. Past launches, particularly those during the Iraq base strikes in 2020 and operations in Syria, revealed a significant variation in impact zones, suggesting limitations in satellite coordination and inertial guidance.
Additionally, Iran’s manufacturing infrastructure, while robust in quantity, lacks the quality assurance protocols seen in peer military powers. Many of its designs, though indigenized, are derived from North Korean or Soviet-era systems, raising doubts about long-term reliability.
The focus on missile development also comes at a cost: neglected air force modernization, reliance on aging fighter jets, and limited drone-to-missile integration. While the missiles can fly fast and far, they are still heavily dependent on static launch systems, making them more vulnerable to pre-emptive strikes.
The Strategic Cost of Escalation
Iran’s growing missile capabilities may empower its geopolitical posture, but they also risk deeper isolation. As these systems are deployed more frequently—whether against state or non-state targets—the threshold for retaliation lowers. More importantly, the transfer of missile systems to proxies such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various Iraqi militias raises alarm among neighboring states and global actors alike.
Such transfers may enhance influence, but they also blur accountability, potentially drawing Iran into conflicts it cannot fully control. The result is a security dilemma: each show of strength forces its adversaries to expand their own arsenals, making diplomacy harder to sustain.
Moreover, the reliance on missiles like Haj Qassem reinforces a military-first narrative in Iranian policy circles. It downplays the importance of internal economic stability, international engagement, and diplomatic de-escalation—areas where Iran remains under heavy sanctions and struggling with inflation and unrest.
A Regional Power With Strategic Limits
Missiles are a tool. Whether they serve as shields or spears depends on how they are used—and why.
Iran’s expanding ballistic and hypersonic programs demonstrate ingenuity under pressure and technical resilience. But they also reflect a strategic culture that continues to prioritize confrontation over integration, and symbolism over transparency.
The Haj Qassem missile may indeed bypass defense systems. But the larger question remains: can it overcome the structural weaknesses and diplomatic isolation that have long defined Iran’s regional posture?
Sources:
CSIS Missile Threat – Center for Strategic and International Studies:
“Iran’s Missile Arsenal,” missilethreat.csis.org.
https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran
Army Technology – Global Defence Technology:
“Fateh-110 Tactical Ballistic Missile,”
https://www.army-technology.com/projects/fateh-110
Reuters:
“Iran unveils new hypersonic missile Fattah,”
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-unveils-hypersonic-missile-2023-06-06
Al Monitor:
“Iran claims to have developed hypersonic missile,”
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/06/iran-claims-have-developed-hypersonic-missile
Wikipedia (cross-verified with defense sources):
Pages on Fateh-110, Zolfaghar, Kheibar Shekan, Fattah-1, Shahab-3, and Haj Qassem missiles
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missiles_of_Iran
